Indian Wells MastersDuraR64Saturday, March 8, 2025
No-vig market probability
Rublev 66%34% Arnaldi
1.47Recorded odds2.89
FINAL RESULT
Match score
Andrey RublevVSMatteo Arnaldi
4Set 16
5Set 27
Matteo Arnaldi won the match
CAREER COMPARISON
Player records
Andrey RublevMatteo Arnaldi
60%
% de victorias en carrera
38%
61%
% de victorias en dura
32%
85%
Mantiene el saque
72%
21%
Rompe el saque
19%
63%
1er saque dentro
57%
76%
Puntos con 1er saque
68%
37%
Puntos al resto ganados
36%
7.4
Aces / partido
5.3
44%
% de tiebreaks
50%
57%
% de sets decisivos
29%
1642
Nivel
1462
SERVICE PLACEMENT
Serve targets from this match
Andrey Rublev61 serves
Dónde coloca su servicio
Matteo Arnaldi70 serves
Dónde coloca su servicio
20%Abierto
2%Cuerpo
31%T
11%T
7%Cuerpo
30%Abierto
19%Abierto
11%Cuerpo
23%T
11%T
7%Cuerpo
29%Abierto
IgualesVentajaIgualesVentaja
Objetivo preferidoIguales · T31%
Objetivo preferidoVentaja · Abierto29%
MATCH STORY
PhantomStat recap
Matteo Arnaldi defeated Andrey Rublev 6–4, 7–5 at the Indian Wells Masters, a hard-court ATP Masters 1000 event, in the first round on 8 March 2025. The result constituted an upset, with Rublev entering as the pre-match favourite at 1.47 odds compared to Arnaldi's 2.89. Arnaldi's composed performance across both sets—particularly his control in the second, where he edged a tight contest—demonstrated his capacity to compete against higher-ranked opposition on the North American hard courts. The Italian's victory represents a notable scalp early in the desert swing and suggests potential momentum heading into the tournament's deeper rounds.