Indian Wells MastersDuraSFSaturday, March 14, 2026
No-vig market probability
Alcaraz 81%19% Medvedev
1.17Recorded odds4.84
FINAL RESULT
Match score
Carlos AlcarazVSDaniil Medvedev
3Set 16
6Set 27
Daniil Medvedev won the match
CAREER COMPARISON
Player records
Carlos AlcarazDaniil Medvedev
80%
% de victorias en carrera
69%
78%
% de victorias en dura
70%
86%
Mantiene el saque
85%
29%
Rompe el saque
25%
65%
1er saque dentro
63%
72%
Puntos con 1er saque
75%
41%
Puntos al resto ganados
39%
4.4
Aces / partido
8.4
59%
% de tiebreaks
52%
67%
% de sets decisivos
56%
1946
Nivel
1722
SERVICE PLACEMENT
Serve targets from this match
Carlos Alcaraz62 serves
Dónde coloca su servicio
Daniil Medvedev75 serves
Dónde coloca su servicio
27%Abierto
2%Cuerpo
24%T
15%T
6%Cuerpo
26%Abierto
39%Abierto
1%Cuerpo
12%T
35%T
1%Cuerpo
12%Abierto
IgualesVentajaIgualesVentaja
Objetivo preferidoIguales · Abierto27%
Objetivo preferidoIguales · Abierto39%
MATCH STORY
PhantomStat recap
Daniil Medvedev upset pre-match favourite Carlos Alcaraz 6–3, 7–6 in the semi-final of the ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells on hard court, a result that defied the odds which favoured Alcaraz at 1.17 to 4.84. Medvedev's composed performance, particularly in a tight second set decided in a tie-break, demonstrated his capacity to compete at the highest level against the world's elite. The Russian's victory on the California hard courts underscores his continued resilience and tactical acumen in Masters events. This result significantly reshapes the tournament's trajectory and suggests Medvedev remains a formidable contender in best-of-three formats.