Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Carlos AlcarazAbrir el análisis completoSebastian BaezAbrir el análisis completo

TokyoDuraR32Thursday, September 25, 2025
No-vig market probability
Alcaraz 95%5% Baez
1.01Recorded odds17.87
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Carlos AlcarazVSSebastian Baez
6Set 14
6Set 22

Carlos Alcaraz won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Carlos AlcarazSebastian Baez
80%
% de victorias en carrera
38%
78%
% de victorias en dura
17%
86%
Mantiene el saque
68%
29%
Rompe el saque
25%
65%
1er saque dentro
71%
72%
Puntos con 1er saque
62%
41%
Puntos al resto ganados
39%
4.4
Aces / partido
1.3
59%
% de tiebreaks
17%
67%
% de sets decisivos
54%
1946
Nivel
1459
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Carlos Alcaraz56 serves
Dónde coloca su servicio
Sebastian Baez54 serves
Dónde coloca su servicio
25%Abierto
0%Cuerpo
27%T
18%T
2%Cuerpo
29%Abierto
17%Abierto
11%Cuerpo
24%T
22%T
4%Cuerpo
22%Abierto
IgualesVentajaIgualesVentaja
Objetivo preferidoVentaja · Abierto29%
Objetivo preferidoIguales · T24%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Sebastian Baez 6–4, 6–2 in the first round of the ATP 250 Tokyo tournament on hard court, confirming his status as the overwhelming pre-match favourite with odds of 1.01 to Baez's 17.87. The Spanish top seed controlled the match throughout, breaking serve decisively in both sets to secure a comfortable victory. Alcaraz's commanding performance in the opening round suggests he remains in strong form as the tournament progresses toward the latter stages.