Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Aryna SabalenkaApri l’analisi completaElena RybakinaApri l’analisi completa

CincinnatiCementoQFFriday, August 15, 2025
No-vig market probability
Sabalenka 60%40% Rybakina
1.63Recorded odds2.44
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Aryna SabalenkaVSElena Rybakina
1Set 16
4Set 26

Elena Rybakina won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Aryna SabalenkaElena Rybakina
70%
% di vittorie in carriera
78%
74%
% di vittorie sul cemento
80%
77%
Tiene il servizio
81%
34%
Strappa il servizio
35%
62%
Prima di servizio dentro
58%
68%
Punti sulla prima
73%
43%
Punti in risposta vinti
44%
4.5
Ace / partita
6.4
81%
% di tiebreak
57%
44%
% di set decisivi
60%
1790
Livello
1954
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Aryna Sabalenka43 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
Elena Rybakina64 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
21%Esterno
19%Corpo
14%T
9%T
14%Corpo
23%Esterno
28%Esterno
6%Corpo
16%T
5%T
16%Corpo
30%Esterno
ParitàVantaggioParitàVantaggio
Bersaglio preferitoVantaggio · Esterno23%
Bersaglio preferitoVantaggio · Esterno30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6–1, 6–4 in the Cincinnati Masters 1000 quarter-final on hard court, an upset victory against the pre-match favourite. Sabalenka entered as the odds-on favourite at 1.63, but Rybakina's dominant performance, particularly in the opening set, proved decisive. The Kazakhstani player's clean execution and court control allowed her to break serve repeatedly and dictate rallies from the baseline. Sabalenka, despite her ranking and seeding status, struggled to find rhythm and was unable to mount a sustained challenge, especially after losing the first set so decisively. Rybakina's convincing win suggests renewed confidence heading into the latter stages of the tournament and marks a significant scalp against one of the tour's top players.