Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Joao FonsecaApri l’analisi completaTommy PaulApri l’analisi completa

Indian Wells MastersCementoR32Monday, March 9, 2026
No-vig market probability
Fonseca 34%66% Paul
2.74Recorded odds1.42
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Joao FonsecaVSTommy Paul
6Set 12
6Set 23

Joao Fonseca won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Joao FonsecaTommy Paul
60%
% di vittorie in carriera
50%
61%
% di vittorie sul cemento
50%
84%
Tiene il servizio
80%
20%
Strappa il servizio
21%
66%
Prima di servizio dentro
62%
71%
Punti sulla prima
71%
37%
Punti in risposta vinti
37%
5.4
Ace / partita
5.1
53%
% di tiebreak
35%
47%
% di set decisivi
55%
1614
Livello
1702
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Joao Fonseca50 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
Tommy Paul58 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
28%Esterno
4%Corpo
20%T
24%T
0%Corpo
24%Esterno
26%Esterno
2%Corpo
24%T
14%T
3%Corpo
31%Esterno
ParitàVantaggioParitàVantaggio
Bersaglio preferitoParità · Esterno28%
Bersaglio preferitoVantaggio · Esterno31%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Joao Fonseca defeated Tommy Paul 6–2, 6–3 in the second round of the Indian Wells Masters on hard court, delivering an upset victory against the pre-match favourite. Despite Paul entering as the betting favourite at 1.42 odds, Fonseca's superior court control and consistency proved decisive, with the Brazilian claiming both sets with relative ease. The dominant performance suggests Fonseca has found his rhythm on the hard courts of the California desert, where precision and baseline strength are paramount. This result marks a significant scalp for Fonseca in the Masters 1000 calendar and positions him well for a potential deep run at Indian Wells.