Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Kei NishikoriApri l’analisi completaTommy PaulApri l’analisi completa

Australian OpenCementoR64Wednesday, January 15, 2025
No-vig market probability
Nishikori 33%67% Paul
2.97Recorded odds1.45
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Kei NishikoriVSTommy Paul
7Set 16
0Set 26
3Set 36
1Set 46

Tommy Paul won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Kei NishikoriTommy Paul
53%
% di vittorie in carriera
50%
45%
% di vittorie sul cemento
50%
77%
Tiene il servizio
80%
22%
Strappa il servizio
21%
62%
Prima di servizio dentro
62%
68%
Punti sulla prima
71%
38%
Punti in risposta vinti
37%
2.9
Ace / partita
5.1
41%
% di tiebreak
35%
60%
% di set decisivi
55%
1604
Livello
1702
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Kei Nishikori129 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
Tommy Paul104 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
15%Esterno
19%Corpo
19%T
9%T
18%Corpo
21%Esterno
17%Esterno
18%Corpo
16%T
12%T
21%Corpo
14%Esterno
ParitàVantaggioParitàVantaggio
Bersaglio preferitoVantaggio · Esterno21%
Bersaglio preferitoVantaggio · Sul corpo21%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Tommy Paul defeated Kei Nishikori 6–7, 6–0, 6–3, 6–1 in the first round of the Australian Open on hard court, confirming his pre-match favourite status with odds of 1.45 against Nishikori's 2.97. After losing a tight opening set to the Japanese veteran, Paul asserted complete control from the second set onward, dismantling his opponent's resistance with successive commanding displays. The American's dominance in the final two sets—particularly the bagel in the second—underscored a significant performance gap once the match's momentum shifted. Paul's progression sets up a second-round encounter that will test whether he can maintain this level against stiffer opposition at Melbourne Park.