Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Lorenzo MusettiApri l’analisi completaMatteo ArnaldiApri l’analisi completa

Australian OpenCementoR128Tuesday, January 14, 2025
No-vig market probability
Musetti 61%39% Arnaldi
1.60Recorded odds2.50
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Lorenzo MusettiVSMatteo Arnaldi
7Set 16
4Set 26
7Set 36
6Set 43

Lorenzo Musetti won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Lorenzo MusettiMatteo Arnaldi
56%
% di vittorie in carriera
38%
45%
% di vittorie sul cemento
32%
79%
Tiene il servizio
72%
22%
Strappa il servizio
19%
64%
Prima di servizio dentro
57%
69%
Punti sulla prima
68%
38%
Punti in risposta vinti
36%
3.7
Ace / partita
5.3
45%
% di tiebreak
50%
69%
% di set decisivi
29%
1634
Livello
1462
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Lorenzo Musetti147 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
Matteo Arnaldi183 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
18%Esterno
7%Corpo
25%T
22%T
10%Corpo
18%Esterno
16%Esterno
10%Corpo
26%T
14%T
5%Corpo
30%Esterno
ParitàVantaggioParitàVantaggio
Bersaglio preferitoParità · T25%
Bersaglio preferitoVantaggio · Esterno30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Lorenzo Musetti defeated fellow Italian Matteo Arnaldi 7–6, 4–6, 7–6, 6–3 in the first round of the Australian Open on hard court on 14 January 2025, confirming his status as pre-match favourite at odds of 1.6 to Arnaldi's 2.5. The match proved competitive through three sets, with both players claiming a tiebreak apiece before Musetti seized control in the fourth to secure passage to the second round. The result extends Musetti's head-to-head record against his compatriot and demonstrates his capability to navigate tight contests at Grand Slam level early in the season.