Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Matteo ArnaldiApri l’analisi completaNovak DjokovićApri l’analisi completa

Madrid MastersTerra rossaR64Saturday, April 26, 2025
No-vig market probability
Arnaldi 25%75% Djoković
3.93Recorded odds1.28
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Matteo ArnaldiVSNovak Djoković
6Set 13
6Set 24

Matteo Arnaldi won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Matteo ArnaldiNovak Djoković
38%
% di vittorie in carriera
77%
60%
% di vittorie sulla terra
71%
72%
Tiene il servizio
86%
19%
Strappa il servizio
28%
57%
Prima di servizio dentro
65%
68%
Punti sulla prima
73%
36%
Punti in risposta vinti
40%
5.3
Ace / partita
5.9
50%
% di tiebreak
61%
29%
% di set decisivi
71%
1462
Livello
1802
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Matteo Arnaldi74 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
Novak Djoković53 serves
Dove piazza il servizio
19%Esterno
8%Corpo
24%T
19%T
5%Corpo
24%Esterno
23%Esterno
2%Corpo
28%T
25%T
2%Corpo
21%Esterno
ParitàVantaggioParitàVantaggio
Bersaglio preferitoParità · T24%
Bersaglio preferitoParità · T28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Novak Djoković 6–3, 6–4 at the Madrid Masters on clay in the first round, pulling off a significant upset against the pre-match favourite. The Italian, who carried odds of 3.93 against Djoković's 1.28, controlled both sets with consistent tennis and superior court positioning on the red clay. Djoković, seeded high and expected to advance comfortably, struggled to impose his usual rhythm and failed to find the solutions needed to break Arnaldi's serve and dictate play from the baseline. The straightforward nature of the scoreline underscored Arnaldi's dominance in the encounter. The result represents a career-defining victory for the 23-year-old and raises questions about Djoković's form and readiness on the Madrid clay surface this season.