Indian Wells MastersPiso duroR64Saturday, March 8, 2025
No-vig market probability
Rublev 66%34% Arnaldi
1.47Recorded odds2.89
FINAL RESULT
Match score
Andrey RublevVSMatteo Arnaldi
4Set 16
5Set 27
Matteo Arnaldi won the match
CAREER COMPARISON
Player records
Andrey RublevMatteo Arnaldi
60%
% de vitórias na carreira
38%
61%
% de vitórias em dura
32%
85%
Mantém o saque
72%
21%
Quebra o saque
19%
63%
1º serviço dentro
57%
76%
Pontos no 1º serviço
68%
37%
Pontos de devolução ganhos
36%
7.4
Ases / jogo
5.3
44%
% de tiebreaks
50%
57%
% de sets decisivos
29%
1642
Nível
1462
SERVICE PLACEMENT
Serve targets from this match
Andrey Rublev61 serves
Onde coloca o serviço
Matteo Arnaldi70 serves
Onde coloca o serviço
20%Aberto
2%Tronco
31%T
11%T
7%Tronco
30%Aberto
19%Aberto
11%Tronco
23%T
11%T
7%Tronco
29%Aberto
IguaisVantagemIguaisVantagem
Alvo preferidoIguais · T31%
Alvo preferidoVantagem · Aberto29%
MATCH STORY
PhantomStat recap
Matteo Arnaldi defeated Andrey Rublev 6–4, 7–5 at the Indian Wells Masters, a hard-court ATP Masters 1000 event, in the first round on 8 March 2025. The result constituted an upset, with Rublev entering as the pre-match favourite at 1.47 odds compared to Arnaldi's 2.89. Arnaldi's composed performance across both sets—particularly his control in the second, where he edged a tight contest—demonstrated his capacity to compete against higher-ranked opposition on the North American hard courts. The Italian's victory represents a notable scalp early in the desert swing and suggests potential momentum heading into the tournament's deeper rounds.