Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Carlos AlcarazAbrir análise completaSebastian BaezAbrir análise completa

TokyoPiso duroR32Thursday, September 25, 2025
No-vig market probability
Alcaraz 95%5% Baez
1.01Recorded odds17.87
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Carlos AlcarazVSSebastian Baez
6Set 14
6Set 22

Carlos Alcaraz won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Carlos AlcarazSebastian Baez
80%
% de vitórias na carreira
38%
78%
% de vitórias em dura
17%
86%
Mantém o saque
68%
29%
Quebra o saque
25%
65%
1º serviço dentro
71%
72%
Pontos no 1º serviço
62%
41%
Pontos de devolução ganhos
39%
4.4
Ases / jogo
1.3
59%
% de tiebreaks
17%
67%
% de sets decisivos
54%
1946
Nível
1459
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Carlos Alcaraz56 serves
Onde coloca o serviço
Sebastian Baez54 serves
Onde coloca o serviço
25%Aberto
0%Tronco
27%T
18%T
2%Tronco
29%Aberto
17%Aberto
11%Tronco
24%T
22%T
4%Tronco
22%Aberto
IguaisVantagemIguaisVantagem
Alvo preferidoVantagem · Aberto29%
Alvo preferidoIguais · T24%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Sebastian Baez 6–4, 6–2 in the first round of the ATP 250 Tokyo tournament on hard court, confirming his status as the overwhelming pre-match favourite with odds of 1.01 to Baez's 17.87. The Spanish top seed controlled the match throughout, breaking serve decisively in both sets to secure a comfortable victory. Alcaraz's commanding performance in the opening round suggests he remains in strong form as the tournament progresses toward the latter stages.