Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Matteo ArnaldiAbrir análise completaNovak DjokovićAbrir análise completa

Madrid MastersTerra batidaR64Saturday, April 26, 2025
No-vig market probability
Arnaldi 25%75% Djoković
3.93Recorded odds1.28
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Matteo ArnaldiVSNovak Djoković
6Set 13
6Set 24

Matteo Arnaldi won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Matteo ArnaldiNovak Djoković
38%
% de vitórias na carreira
77%
60%
% de vitórias no saibro
71%
72%
Mantém o saque
86%
19%
Quebra o saque
28%
57%
1º serviço dentro
65%
68%
Pontos no 1º serviço
73%
36%
Pontos de devolução ganhos
40%
5.3
Ases / jogo
5.9
50%
% de tiebreaks
61%
29%
% de sets decisivos
71%
1462
Nível
1802
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Matteo Arnaldi74 serves
Onde coloca o serviço
Novak Djoković53 serves
Onde coloca o serviço
19%Aberto
8%Tronco
24%T
19%T
5%Tronco
24%Aberto
23%Aberto
2%Tronco
28%T
25%T
2%Tronco
21%Aberto
IguaisVantagemIguaisVantagem
Alvo preferidoIguais · T24%
Alvo preferidoIguais · T28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Novak Djoković 6–3, 6–4 at the Madrid Masters on clay in the first round, pulling off a significant upset against the pre-match favourite. The Italian, who carried odds of 3.93 against Djoković's 1.28, controlled both sets with consistent tennis and superior court positioning on the red clay. Djoković, seeded high and expected to advance comfortably, struggled to impose his usual rhythm and failed to find the solutions needed to break Arnaldi's serve and dictate play from the baseline. The straightforward nature of the scoreline underscored Arnaldi's dominance in the encounter. The result represents a career-defining victory for the 23-year-old and raises questions about Djoković's form and readiness on the Madrid clay surface this season.