Italy edged Israel 5-4 in a World Cup qualifier that exposed defensive fragility on both sides, with the visitors' superior clinical finishing proving decisive despite near-parity in underlying metrics. Israel created chances from their 4-2-3-1 shape, registering 7 shots on target from 11 attempts, yet their expected goals of 2.08 underperformed their actual output, while Italy's 4-4-2 generated 17 shots with identical accuracy (7 on target) and marginally superior xG of 2.31. Moise Kean's brace led Italy's four-goal spread across the team, complemented by Locatelli, Politano and Bastoni, showcasing depth in their attacking arsenal. Israel's goalkeeper faced a 4.0 post-shot expected goals conceded figure but could only muster a 42.86 per cent save rate, illustrating the difficulty in containing Italy's varied threat. Referee Slavko Vincic oversaw a high-scoring encounter that reflected both teams' attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. Italy's away victory strengthens their qualification prospects despite defensive concerns.
Read it this way: PSxG conceded is how dangerous the shots on target were, Goals conceded is how many actually went in, Goals saved is the gap between the two (higher is better, a minus means he should have saved more), and Save % is the share of on-target shots kept out.
Israel GK
PSxG conceded5.00
Goals conceded5
Goals saved0.00
Save %28.6%
Italy GK
PSxG conceded4.00
Goals conceded4
Goals saved0.00
Save %42.9%
Both keepers had a routine night, with little to separate them.
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Inside the dashboards
Attack vs DefensexG, shots & goals — Home/Away per competition
Form Index & ReboundL5 momentum bar with rebound state per team
Goal Geolocation MapWhere the team scores & concedes — pitch heat
Cards IntelligenceYellow/Red filtered by referee & formation
Corner MasteryDistribution per opponent & tactical context
Top Scorers Cross-RefSquad ranked vs opponent & double-scorer combos
Referee TendencyTeam output under each referee they played for
Goalkeeper WeaknessWhere the keeper concedes — by zone & foot