Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Adam WaltonOpen full analysisMatteo ArnaldiOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardR128Sunday, January 14, 2024
No-vig market probability
Walton 20%80% Arnaldi
4.84Recorded odds1.22
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Adam WaltonVSMatteo Arnaldi
6Set 17
2Set 26
4Set 36

Matteo Arnaldi won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Adam WaltonMatteo Arnaldi
38%
Career Win %
38%
43%
Win % on Hard
32%
80%
Holds Serve
72%
15%
Breaks Serve
19%
61%
1st Serve In
57%
72%
1st Serve Won
68%
34%
Return Pts Won
36%
6.1
Aces / match
5.3
20%
Tiebreak %
50%
0%
Deciding-set %
29%
1480
Rating
1462
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Adam Walton92 serves
Where they place their serve
Matteo Arnaldi114 serves
Where they place their serve
22%Wide
5%Body
27%T
21%T
5%Body
20%Wide
18%Wide
7%Body
28%T
14%T
4%Body
30%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T27%
Top targetAd · Wide30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Adam Walton 7–6, 6–2, 6–4 in the first round of the Australian Open on hard court on 14 January 2024, confirming his status as the heavy pre-match favourite. Arnaldi, priced at 1.22, controlled proceedings after a competitive opening set that required a tiebreak, then accelerated through the second and third sets to secure a straightforward victory. Walton, the significant underdog at 4.84, offered limited resistance once Arnaldi found his rhythm, allowing the Italian to progress without serious threat. The result extends Arnaldi's early-season momentum and sets up a second-round clash against stronger opposition.