Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Adrian MannarinoOpen full analysisMarin CilicOpen full analysis

Hong KonghardR32Sunday, January 4, 2026
No-vig market probability
Mannarino 45%55% Cilic
2.16Recorded odds1.77
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Adrian MannarinoVSMarin Cilic
3Set 16
2Set 26

Marin Cilic won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Adrian MannarinoMarin Cilic
38%
Career Win %
40%
36%
Win % on Hard
41%
76%
Holds Serve
80%
17%
Breaks Serve
16%
61%
1st Serve In
57%
68%
1st Serve Won
75%
35%
Return Pts Won
34%
5.0
Aces / match
10.1
37%
Tiebreak %
48%
61%
Deciding-set %
44%
1442
Rating
1561
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Adrian Mannarino49 serves
Where they place their serve
Marin Cilic56 serves
Where they place their serve
27%Wide
2%Body
24%T
14%T
10%Body
22%Wide
18%Wide
16%Body
16%T
14%T
5%Body
30%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide27%
Top targetAd · Wide30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Marin Cilic defeated Adrian Mannarino 6–3, 6–2 in the first round of the ATP 250 Hong Kong tournament on hard court on 4 January 2026. Cilic, the pre-match favourite at odds of 1.77, delivered a commanding performance to justify his seeding, breaking down Mannarino's resistance with decisive tennis across both sets. Mannarino, at 2.16 odds, offered limited resistance as Cilic controlled the match with clinical execution. The Croatian's straightforward victory underscores his continued fitness and form heading into the Australian summer, while Mannarino faces an early exit from the tournament.