Indian Wells MastershardR128Wednesday, March 4, 2026
No-vig market probability
Mannarino 34%66% Berrettini
2.73Recorded odds1.43
FINAL RESULT
Match score
Adrian MannarinoVSMatteo Berrettini
6Set 14
5Set 27
5Set 37
Matteo Berrettini won the match
CAREER COMPARISON
Player records
Adrian MannarinoMatteo Berrettini
38%
Career Win %
59%
36%
Win % on Hard
53%
76%
Holds Serve
88%
17%
Breaks Serve
15%
61%
1st Serve In
65%
68%
1st Serve Won
78%
35%
Return Pts Won
34%
5.0
Aces / match
10.6
37%
Tiebreak %
57%
61%
Deciding-set %
50%
1442
Rating
1629
SERVICE PLACEMENT
Serve targets from this match
Adrian Mannarino113 serves
Where they place their serve
Matteo Berrettini100 serves
Where they place their serve
16%Wide
15%Body
22%T
11%T
8%Body
28%Wide
21%Wide
16%Body
17%T
11%T
11%Body
24%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide28%
Top targetAd · Wide24%
MATCH STORY
PhantomStat recap
Matteo Berrettini defeated Adrian Mannarino 4–6, 7–5, 7–5 in the first round of the Indian Wells Masters on hard court. Berrettini, the pre-match favourite at 1.43 odds, recovered from losing the opening set to claim a straight-sets victory in terms of match outcome, though requiring three sets overall. Mannarino, despite the longer odds at 2.73, mounted resistance in the second and third sets, each going to 7–5 before Berrettini secured the decisive break. The Italian's composure in the latter stages proved decisive as he turned the match around following an early setback. Berrettini's comeback victory positions him favourably in his Indian Wells campaign.
