Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alejandro Davidovich FokinaOpen full analysisJoao FonsecaOpen full analysis

CincinnatihardR64Saturday, August 9, 2025
No-vig market probability
Fokina 53%47% Fonseca
1.83Recorded odds2.08
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alejandro Davidovich FokinaVSJoao Fonseca
7Set 16
4Set 25

Joao Fonseca won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alejandro Davidovich FokinaJoao Fonseca
36%
Career Win %
59%
34%
Win % on Hard
60%
72%
Holds Serve
84%
21%
Breaks Serve
20%
67%
1st Serve In
66%
64%
1st Serve Won
71%
37%
Return Pts Won
36%
3.1
Aces / match
5.5
42%
Tiebreak %
53%
50%
Deciding-set %
44%
1529
Rating
1601
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina68 serves
Where they place their serve
Joao Fonseca65 serves
Where they place their serve
22%Wide
22%Body
9%T
18%T
18%Body
12%Wide
20%Wide
15%Body
17%T
17%T
9%Body
22%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide22%
Top targetAd · Wide22%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Joao Fonseca upset pre-match favourite Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7–6, 4–5 (incomplete) at the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati on hard court in the first round on 9 August 2025. Despite Fokina entering as the odds-on favourite at 1.83, the younger Fonseca secured the opening set via tiebreak before taking the lead in the second set when the match record ends at 4–5. The incomplete scoreline suggests the match was either unfinished or the result was determined before completion of the second set. This upset victory represents a significant scalp for Fonseca against an established top-100 player and signals potential momentum heading into subsequent rounds.