Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alex De MinaurOpen full analysisDaniil MedvedevOpen full analysis

Shanghai MastershardQFFriday, October 10, 2025
No-vig market probability
Minaur 62%38% Medvedev
1.56Recorded odds2.60
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alex De MinaurVSDaniil Medvedev
4Set 16
4Set 26

Daniil Medvedev won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alex De MinaurDaniil Medvedev
53%
Career Win %
69%
58%
Win % on Hard
70%
79%
Holds Serve
85%
24%
Breaks Serve
25%
58%
1st Serve In
63%
70%
1st Serve Won
75%
39%
Return Pts Won
39%
3.5
Aces / match
8.4
49%
Tiebreak %
52%
49%
Deciding-set %
56%
1695
Rating
1722
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alex De Minaur71 serves
Where they place their serve
Daniil Medvedev69 serves
Where they place their serve
23%Wide
17%Body
11%T
11%T
15%Body
23%Wide
22%Wide
10%Body
20%T
22%T
10%Body
16%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide23%
Top targetDeuce · Wide22%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Daniil Medvedev defeated Alex De Minaur 6–4, 6–4 in the Shanghai Masters quarter-final on hard court on 10 October 2025, producing a significant upset against the pre-match favourite. De Minaur entered as the odds-on favourite at 1.56, whilst Medvedev was priced at 2.6, yet the Russian controlled both sets with consistent play to advance in straight sets. The result represents a notable reversal of form between the two players and strengthens Medvedev's position in the latter stages of the Masters 1000 event. Medvedev now progresses to the semi-finals with momentum, whilst De Minaur's campaign at Shanghai concludes at the quarter-final stage.