Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alex De MinaurOpen full analysisJannik SinnerOpen full analysis

BeijinghardSFTuesday, September 30, 2025
No-vig market probability
Minaur 16%84% Sinner
6.18Recorded odds1.16
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alex De MinaurVSJannik Sinner
3Set 16
6Set 24
2Set 36

Jannik Sinner won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alex De MinaurJannik Sinner
53%
Career Win %
78%
59%
Win % on Hard
79%
79%
Holds Serve
88%
24%
Breaks Serve
28%
58%
1st Serve In
61%
70%
1st Serve Won
76%
39%
Return Pts Won
41%
3.5
Aces / match
6.5
49%
Tiebreak %
69%
49%
Deciding-set %
56%
1703
Rating
2147
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alex De Minaur77 serves
Where they place their serve
Jannik Sinner96 serves
Where they place their serve
25%Wide
17%Body
12%T
5%T
8%Body
34%Wide
17%Wide
7%Body
28%T
17%T
7%Body
24%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide34%
Top targetDeuce · T28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Jannik Sinner defeated Alex De Minaur 6–3, 4–6, 6–2 in the semi-final of the ATP Masters 1000 event in Beijing on hard court, confirming his status as the pre-match favourite with odds of 1.16 to De Minaur's 6.18. Sinner controlled the opening set decisively, though De Minaur mounted a brief challenge in the second, breaking serve to level the match. The Italian reasserted dominance in the decider, wrapping up the contest in straight sets to advance to the final. The result underscores Sinner's consistency at Masters level and positions him within touching distance of a significant title at one of the season's most prestigious hard-court tournaments.