Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alex De MinaurOpen full analysisJannik SinnerOpen full analysis

Tour FinalshardSFSaturday, November 15, 2025
No-vig market probability
Minaur 11%89% Sinner
8.53Recorded odds1.10
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alex De MinaurVSJannik Sinner
5Set 17
2Set 26

Jannik Sinner won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alex De MinaurJannik Sinner
52%
Career Win %
78%
58%
Win % on Hard
79%
79%
Holds Serve
88%
24%
Breaks Serve
28%
58%
1st Serve In
61%
70%
1st Serve Won
76%
39%
Return Pts Won
41%
3.5
Aces / match
6.5
49%
Tiebreak %
69%
49%
Deciding-set %
56%
1688
Rating
2147
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alex De Minaur88 serves
Where they place their serve
Jannik Sinner59 serves
Where they place their serve
20%Wide
20%Body
10%T
15%T
15%Body
19%Wide
17%Wide
12%Body
25%T
15%T
3%Body
27%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide20%
Top targetAd · Wide27%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Jannik Sinner defeated Alex De Minaur 7-5 6-2 in the semi-final of the ATP Tour Finals on hard court, a result that confirmed pre-match odds favouring the Italian top seed. De Minaur, competing as a significant underdog at 8.53, offered modest resistance in the opening set before Sinner's superior court control and consistency asserted itself decisively in the second. The scoreline reflects a commanding performance from Sinner, who controlled the rhythm throughout and capitalised on De Minaur's inability to sustain pressure during crucial moments. The victory advances Sinner to the tournament final, reinforcing his status as the year's dominant hard-court performer and extending his record against the Australian.