Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alex De MinaurOpen full analysisRafael NadalOpen full analysis

Madrid MastersclayR64Saturday, April 27, 2024
No-vig market probability
Minaur 60%40% Nadal
1.63Recorded odds2.42
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alex De MinaurVSRafael Nadal
6Set 17
3Set 26

Rafael Nadal won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alex De MinaurRafael Nadal
53%
Career Win %
72%
22%
Win % on Clay
85%
79%
Holds Serve
84%
24%
Breaks Serve
27%
58%
1st Serve In
69%
70%
1st Serve Won
71%
39%
Return Pts Won
40%
3.5
Aces / match
3.5
49%
Tiebreak %
53%
49%
Deciding-set %
67%
1695
Rating
1728
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alex De Minaur67 serves
Where they place their serve
Rafael Nadal62 serves
Where they place their serve
22%Wide
19%Body
10%T
19%T
22%Body
6%Wide
6%Wide
19%Body
27%T
3%T
27%Body
16%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide22%
Top targetDeuce · T27%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Rafael Nadal defeated Alex De Minaur 7–6, 6–3 at the Madrid Masters on clay in the first round, upsetting the pre-match favourite in the process. De Minaur entered as the odds-on favourite at 1.63, but Nadal, available at 2.42, proved too composed on his preferred surface. The first set remained competitive, extending to a tiebreak before Nadal secured it; the second set saw a clear shift in momentum as the Spaniard broke down De Minaur's resistance to claim a commanding second-set victory. Nadal's return to form on clay continues to build ahead of the French Open.