Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alex De MinaurOpen full analysisReilly OpelkaOpen full analysis

Cincinnati MastershardR64Sunday, August 10, 2025
No-vig market probability
Minaur 79%21% Opelka
1.24Recorded odds4.66
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alex De MinaurVSReilly Opelka
6Set 17
4Set 26

Reilly Opelka won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alex De MinaurReilly Opelka
53%
Career Win %
50%
58%
Win % on Hard
50%
79%
Holds Serve
90%
24%
Breaks Serve
8%
58%
1st Serve In
66%
70%
1st Serve Won
77%
39%
Return Pts Won
28%
3.5
Aces / match
16.4
49%
Tiebreak %
54%
49%
Deciding-set %
46%
1695
Rating
1554
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alex De Minaur69 serves
Where they place their serve
Reilly Opelka76 serves
Where they place their serve
25%Wide
9%Body
19%T
25%T
6%Body
17%Wide
24%Wide
7%Body
22%T
12%T
0%Body
36%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide25%
Top targetAd · Wide36%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Reilly Opelka defeated Alex De Minaur 7–6, 6–4 in the first round of the Cincinnati Masters on hard court, delivering an upset against the favoured Australian. De Minaur entered as the pre-match favourite with odds of 1.24, but Opelka's commanding performance—particularly his serve-based game—proved decisive in both sets. The American secured the opening set via tiebreak before breaking clear in the second to advance comfortably. This result represents a significant statement from Opelka at a Masters 1000 event and demonstrates his capacity to trouble top-ranked opponents on hard courts, whilst De Minaur will seek to reassess his form heading into the remainder of the summer swing.