Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alexander BublikOpen full analysisAndrey RublevOpen full analysis

Madrid MastersclayR32Sunday, April 27, 2025
No-vig market probability
Bublik 22%78% Rublev
4.38Recorded odds1.27
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alexander BublikVSAndrey Rublev
6Set 14
0Set 26
6Set 34

Alexander Bublik won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alexander BublikAndrey Rublev
54%
Career Win %
60%
64%
Win % on Clay
56%
81%
Holds Serve
85%
15%
Breaks Serve
21%
61%
1st Serve In
63%
76%
1st Serve Won
76%
34%
Return Pts Won
37%
10.8
Aces / match
7.4
53%
Tiebreak %
44%
70%
Deciding-set %
57%
1646
Rating
1642
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alexander Bublik71 serves
Where they place their serve
Andrey Rublev67 serves
Where they place their serve
20%Wide
1%Body
31%T
17%T
4%Body
27%Wide
19%Wide
4%Body
30%T
18%T
3%Body
25%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T31%
Top targetDeuce · T30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Alexander Bublik defeated Andrey Rublev 6-4, 0-6, 6-4 in the Madrid Masters R32 on clay on 27 April 2025, producing a significant upset against the pre-match favourite. Rublev entered as the heavy favourite at 1.27 odds, whilst Bublik was priced at 4.38, yet the Kazakhstani player executed a composed performance to claim victory in three sets. After dropping the opening set, Bublik regrouped decisively in the second, shutting out his opponent entirely before securing the decider with consistent tennis. The result marks a notable scalp for Bublik at the Masters 1000 level and demonstrates his capacity to trouble higher-ranked opposition on the red clay.