Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alexander BublikOpen full analysisLorenzo MusettiOpen full analysis

Hong KonghardFSunday, January 11, 2026
No-vig market probability
Bublik 52%48% Musetti
1.86Recorded odds2.05
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alexander BublikVSLorenzo Musetti
7Set 16
6Set 23

Alexander Bublik won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alexander BublikLorenzo Musetti
54%
Career Win %
56%
48%
Win % on Hard
45%
81%
Holds Serve
79%
15%
Breaks Serve
22%
61%
1st Serve In
64%
76%
1st Serve Won
69%
34%
Return Pts Won
38%
10.8
Aces / match
3.7
53%
Tiebreak %
45%
70%
Deciding-set %
69%
1646
Rating
1634
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alexander Bublik67 serves
Where they place their serve
Lorenzo Musetti73 serves
Where they place their serve
18%Wide
9%Body
25%T
28%T
7%Body
12%Wide
12%Wide
15%Body
25%T
30%T
7%Body
11%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · T28%
Top targetAd · T30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Alexander Bublik defeated Lorenzo Musetti 7–6, 6–3 in the final of the ATP 250 Hong Kong event on hard court, confirming his status as pre-match favourite with odds of 1.86 to Musetti's 2.05. The Kazakhstani player controlled the encounter, taking a competitive opening set via tiebreak before dominating the second to claim his title. Bublik's composed performance in the decider underlined his superiority on the day, with Musetti unable to mount a sustained challenge after the first-set contest. The victory extends Bublik's winning streak and marks a significant title at a 250-level event, while Musetti's runner-up finish offers limited consolation in his bid to climb the rankings.