Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alexander BublikOpen full analysisSebastian BaezOpen full analysis

Miami MastershardR128Wednesday, March 19, 2025
No-vig market probability
Bublik 63%37% Baez
1.53Recorded odds2.60
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alexander BublikVSSebastian Baez
6Set 13
6Set 24

Alexander Bublik won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alexander BublikSebastian Baez
54%
Career Win %
38%
48%
Win % on Hard
17%
81%
Holds Serve
68%
15%
Breaks Serve
25%
61%
1st Serve In
71%
76%
1st Serve Won
62%
34%
Return Pts Won
39%
10.8
Aces / match
1.3
53%
Tiebreak %
17%
70%
Deciding-set %
54%
1646
Rating
1459
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alexander Bublik54 serves
Where they place their serve
Sebastian Baez51 serves
Where they place their serve
15%Wide
15%Body
24%T
24%T
11%Body
11%Wide
12%Wide
25%Body
14%T
25%T
18%Body
6%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T24%
Top targetDeuce · Body25%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Alexander Bublik defeated Sebastian Baez 6–3, 6–4 at the Miami Masters, an ATP Masters 1000 event on hard court in the first round on 19 March 2025. Bublik, the pre-match favourite at 1.53 odds, delivered a composed performance to secure a straight-sets victory against Baez, who entered at 2.6. The Kazakh player's clinical execution across both sets saw him break serve on multiple occasions and maintain control throughout, never allowing his Argentine opponent to build sustained pressure. Baez, ranked outside the top 100, showed glimpses of competitiveness but could not muster the consistency required to trouble Bublik's baseline game on the fast hard court. The result keeps Bublik's Miami campaign on track as he advances to the next round.