Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alexander ZverevOpen full analysisCarlos AlcarazOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardSFFriday, January 30, 2026
No-vig market probability
Zverev 18%82% Alcaraz
5.19Recorded odds1.16
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alexander ZverevVSCarlos Alcaraz
4Set 16
6Set 27
7Set 36
7Set 46
5Set 57

Carlos Alcaraz won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alexander ZverevCarlos Alcaraz
60%
Career Win %
80%
62%
Win % on Hard
78%
86%
Holds Serve
86%
19%
Breaks Serve
29%
69%
1st Serve In
65%
74%
1st Serve Won
72%
36%
Return Pts Won
41%
8.6
Aces / match
4.4
58%
Tiebreak %
59%
48%
Deciding-set %
67%
1814
Rating
1946
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alexander Zverev207 serves
Where they place their serve
Carlos Alcaraz187 serves
Where they place their serve
22%Wide
8%Body
22%T
22%T
9%Body
17%Wide
28%Wide
8%Body
16%T
17%T
11%Body
20%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T22%
Top targetDeuce · Wide28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Alexander Zverev 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5 in the Australian Open semi-final on hard court, securing his place in the final despite a spirited comeback from the German. As the heavy pre-match favourite at 1.16 odds, Alcaraz controlled the opening sets but faced a stern challenge when Zverev forced a deciding fifth set, levelling the match through two consecutive tie-break victories. The Spaniard's experience and composure ultimately prevailed in the final set, where he broke through Zverev's resistance to claim victory in a gruelling five-set encounter. This result underscores Alcaraz's mental resilience on the Grand Slam stage and sets up a final showdown against an opponent to be determined, whilst Zverev's loss extends his wait for a maiden Grand Slam title.