Indian Wells MastershardSFSaturday, March 14, 2026
No-vig market probability
Zverev 19%81% Sinner
4.91Recorded odds1.17
FINAL RESULT
Match score
Alexander ZverevVSJannik Sinner
2Set 16
4Set 26
Jannik Sinner won the match
CAREER COMPARISON
Player records
Alexander ZverevJannik Sinner
60%
Career Win %
78%
61%
Win % on Hard
79%
86%
Holds Serve
88%
19%
Breaks Serve
28%
69%
1st Serve In
61%
74%
1st Serve Won
76%
36%
Return Pts Won
41%
8.6
Aces / match
6.5
58%
Tiebreak %
69%
48%
Deciding-set %
56%
1809
Rating
2147
SERVICE PLACEMENT
Serve targets from this match
Alexander Zverev53 serves
Where they place their serve
Jannik Sinner51 serves
Where they place their serve
17%Wide
6%Body
28%T
17%T
8%Body
25%Wide
16%Wide
14%Body
24%T
14%T
12%Body
22%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T28%
Top targetDeuce · T24%
MATCH STORY
PhantomStat recap
Jannik Sinner defeated Alexander Zverev 6–2, 6–4 in the semi-final of the Indian Wells Masters on hard court on 14 March 2026, confirming his status as pre-match favourite with a commanding performance. Sinner's victory was emphatic, dropping just six games across two sets against an opponent who entered as a substantial underdog at 4.91 odds. The Italian's control throughout the match reflected the odds disparity, with Zverev unable to mount sustained pressure against a player operating at peak efficiency. This result sees Sinner advance to the final of the Masters 1000 event and reinforces his position among the tour's elite, whilst Zverev's semi-final exit marks another setback in his campaign to reclaim consistency at the highest level.