Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alexandre MullerOpen full analysisSebastian BaezOpen full analysis

Rio de JaneiroclayFSunday, February 23, 2025
No-vig market probability
Muller 45%55% Baez
2.13Recorded odds1.77
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alexandre MullerVSSebastian Baez
2Set 16
3Set 26

Sebastian Baez won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alexandre MullerSebastian Baez
7%
Career Win %
38%
0%
Win % on Clay
55%
64%
Holds Serve
68%
11%
Breaks Serve
25%
61%
1st Serve In
71%
62%
1st Serve Won
62%
31%
Return Pts Won
39%
3.7
Aces / match
1.3
25%
Tiebreak %
17%
0%
Deciding-set %
54%
1406
Rating
1459
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alexandre Muller69 serves
Where they place their serve
Sebastian Baez47 serves
Where they place their serve
28%Wide
7%Body
16%T
17%T
10%Body
22%Wide
26%Wide
4%Body
21%T
15%T
19%Body
15%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide28%
Top targetDeuce · Wide26%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Sebastian Baez defeated Alexandre Muller 6–2, 6–3 in the final of the ATP 250 Rio de Janeiro tournament on clay on 23 February 2025, confirming his status as pre-match favourite with odds of 1.77 to Muller's 2.13. Baez controlled the match throughout, breaking serve consistently to secure the title in straight sets. The Argentine's dominant performance underlined his comfort on the surface and his ability to convert opportunities when it matters most. This victory adds significant ranking points and momentum to Baez's early-season campaign on the South American clay swing.