Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Alexei PopyrinOpen full analysisMatteo ArnaldiOpen full analysis

BrisbanehardR32Monday, December 30, 2024
No-vig market probability
Popyrin 60%40% Arnaldi
1.61Recorded odds2.46
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Alexei PopyrinVSMatteo Arnaldi
3Set 16
2Set 26

Matteo Arnaldi won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Alexei PopyrinMatteo Arnaldi
35%
Career Win %
38%
41%
Win % on Hard
32%
81%
Holds Serve
72%
14%
Breaks Serve
19%
62%
1st Serve In
57%
74%
1st Serve Won
68%
33%
Return Pts Won
36%
9.2
Aces / match
5.3
29%
Tiebreak %
50%
43%
Deciding-set %
29%
1488
Rating
1462
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Alexei Popyrin41 serves
Where they place their serve
Matteo Arnaldi54 serves
Where they place their serve
17%Wide
12%Body
24%T
17%T
10%Body
20%Wide
13%Wide
20%Body
17%T
13%T
4%Body
33%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T24%
Top targetAd · Wide33%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Alexei Popyrin 6–3, 6–2 at the ATP 250 Brisbane tournament on hard court in the first round on 30 December 2024, upsetting the pre-match favourite. Popyrin entered as the odds-on favourite at 1.61, but Arnaldi's clinical performance dismantled the Australian's challenge across two sets, with the Italian breaking serve and maintaining control throughout. The decisive margin and early exit represent a significant setback for Popyrin in the opening week of the season, whilst Arnaldi advances with considerable momentum into the tournament proper.