Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Anastasia PotapovaOpen full analysisDaria KasatkinaOpen full analysis

BrisbanehardR64Sunday, January 4, 2026
No-vig market probability
Potapova 50%50% Kasatkina
1.94Recorded odds1.94
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Anastasia PotapovaVSDaria Kasatkina
7Set 15
4Set 26
6Set 34

Anastasia Potapova won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Anastasia PotapovaDaria Kasatkina
45%
Career Win %
42%
36%
Win % on Hard
42%
61%
Holds Serve
57%
32%
Breaks Serve
38%
58%
1st Serve In
68%
64%
1st Serve Won
59%
42%
Return Pts Won
45%
2.4
Aces / match
1.5
38%
Tiebreak %
50%
67%
Deciding-set %
44%
1559
Rating
1429
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Anastasia Potapova106 serves
Where they place their serve
Daria Kasatkina112 serves
Where they place their serve
24%Wide
12%Body
17%T
14%T
13%Body
20%Wide
28%Wide
8%Body
15%T
21%T
21%Body
7%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide24%
Top targetDeuce · Wide28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Anastasia Potapova defeated Daria Kasatkina 7–5, 4–6, 6–4 in the first round of the Brisbane WTA 250 on hard court on 4 January 2026. Despite Kasatkina entering as the pre-match favourite according to the odds, Potapova secured the upset victory in a competitive three-set encounter. The first set went to Potapova 7–5, before Kasatkina levelled the match by taking the second set 6–4. Potapova regained control in the decider, winning 6–4 to advance. The result represents a solid opening victory for Potapova at the tournament and a setback for the seeded Kasatkina in her Brisbane campaign.