Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Anastasia PotapovaOpen full analysisEmma RaducanuOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardR64Wednesday, January 21, 2026
No-vig market probability
Potapova 30%70% Raducanu
3.13Recorded odds1.35
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Anastasia PotapovaVSEmma Raducanu
7Set 16
6Set 22

Anastasia Potapova won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Anastasia PotapovaEmma Raducanu
45%
Career Win %
52%
36%
Win % on Hard
52%
61%
Holds Serve
69%
32%
Breaks Serve
34%
58%
1st Serve In
67%
64%
1st Serve Won
64%
42%
Return Pts Won
43%
2.4
Aces / match
2.8
38%
Tiebreak %
55%
67%
Deciding-set %
42%
1559
Rating
1604
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Anastasia Potapova66 serves
Where they place their serve
Emma Raducanu62 serves
Where they place their serve
18%Wide
24%Body
11%T
15%T
20%Body
12%Wide
15%Wide
29%Body
8%T
27%T
11%Body
10%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Body24%
Top targetDeuce · Body29%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Anastasia Potapova defeated Emma Raducanu 7–6, 6–2 in the first round of the Australian Open on hard court on 21 January 2026, an upset victory against the pre-match favourite. Raducanu entered as the odds-on favourite at 1.35, whilst Potapova was priced at 3.13, yet the Russian proved the steadier competitor across both sets. The opening set went to a tiebreak, where Potapova secured the crucial points to claim it, before dominating the second set to close out the match convincingly. The result represents a significant scalp for Potapova's Australian Open campaign and raises questions about Raducanu's current form heading deeper into the tournament.