Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Anastasia PotapovaOpen full analysisMarta KostyukOpen full analysis

MadridclaySFThursday, April 30, 2026
No-vig market probability
Potapova 30%70% Kostyuk
3.20Recorded odds1.34
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Anastasia PotapovaVSMarta Kostyuk
2Set 16
6Set 21
1Set 36

Marta Kostyuk won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Anastasia PotapovaMarta Kostyuk
45%
Career Win %
62%
57%
Win % on Clay
64%
61%
Holds Serve
70%
32%
Breaks Serve
37%
58%
1st Serve In
59%
64%
1st Serve Won
68%
42%
Return Pts Won
45%
2.4
Aces / match
3.3
38%
Tiebreak %
55%
67%
Deciding-set %
52%
1559
Rating
1717
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Anastasia Potapova69 serves
Where they place their serve
Marta Kostyuk73 serves
Where they place their serve
16%Wide
6%Body
30%T
14%T
9%Body
25%Wide
10%Wide
16%Body
26%T
4%T
19%Body
25%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T30%
Top targetDeuce · T26%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Marta Kostyuk defeated Anastasia Potapova 6–2, 1–6, 6–1 in the Madrid Masters 1000 semi-final on clay on 30 April 2026, confirming her status as pre-match favourite with odds of 1.34 to Potapova's 3.2. After dropping the second set, Kostyuk reasserted control in the opening and closing frames, demonstrating the consistency required to navigate the tournament's demanding surface. The Ukrainian's recovery from the second-set lapse proved decisive, as she imposed her game to seal a commanding victory that advanced her to the final. The result underscores Kostyuk's current form on clay and positions her as a genuine contender for the title.