Indian Wells MastershardR64Saturday, March 8, 2025
No-vig market probability
Rublev 66%34% Arnaldi
1.47Recorded odds2.89
FINAL RESULT
Match score
Andrey RublevVSMatteo Arnaldi
4Set 16
5Set 27
Matteo Arnaldi won the match
CAREER COMPARISON
Player records
Andrey RublevMatteo Arnaldi
60%
Career Win %
38%
61%
Win % on Hard
32%
85%
Holds Serve
72%
21%
Breaks Serve
19%
63%
1st Serve In
57%
76%
1st Serve Won
68%
37%
Return Pts Won
36%
7.4
Aces / match
5.3
44%
Tiebreak %
50%
57%
Deciding-set %
29%
1642
Rating
1462
SERVICE PLACEMENT
Serve targets from this match
Andrey Rublev61 serves
Where they place their serve
Matteo Arnaldi70 serves
Where they place their serve
20%Wide
2%Body
31%T
11%T
7%Body
30%Wide
19%Wide
11%Body
23%T
11%T
7%Body
29%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T31%
Top targetAd · Wide29%
MATCH STORY
PhantomStat recap
Matteo Arnaldi defeated Andrey Rublev 6–4, 7–5 at the Indian Wells Masters, a hard-court ATP Masters 1000 event, in the first round on 8 March 2025. The result constituted an upset, with Rublev entering as the pre-match favourite at 1.47 odds compared to Arnaldi's 2.89. Arnaldi's composed performance across both sets—particularly his control in the second, where he edged a tight contest—demonstrated his capacity to compete against higher-ranked opposition on the North American hard courts. The Italian's victory represents a notable scalp early in the desert swing and suggests potential momentum heading into the tournament's deeper rounds.