Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Anna KalinskayaOpen full analysisDiana ShnaiderOpen full analysis

TokyohardR16Wednesday, October 22, 2025
No-vig market probability
Kalinskaya 43%57% Shnaider
2.26Recorded odds1.69
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Anna KalinskayaVSDiana Shnaider
7Set 16
2Set 26
7Set 36

Anna Kalinskaya won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Anna KalinskayaDiana Shnaider
54%
Career Win %
47%
57%
Win % on Hard
48%
67%
Holds Serve
70%
32%
Breaks Serve
31%
66%
1st Serve In
65%
62%
1st Serve Won
64%
43%
Return Pts Won
42%
1.8
Aces / match
2.1
78%
Tiebreak %
57%
53%
Deciding-set %
25%
1597
Rating
1600
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Anna Kalinskaya113 serves
Where they place their serve
Diana Shnaider109 serves
Where they place their serve
28%Wide
9%Body
15%T
28%T
9%Body
11%Wide
11%Wide
18%Body
23%T
13%T
21%Body
14%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide28%
Top targetDeuce · T23%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Anna Kalinskaya defeated Diana Shnaider 7–6, 2–6, 7–6 in the Tokyo WTA 250 Round of 16 on the hard court, causing an upset against the pre-match favourite. Shnaider entered as the betting favourite with odds of 1.69 to Kalinskaya's 2.26, yet the Russian battled through two tiebreak sets to secure victory. After surrendering the second set decisively, Kalinskaya regrouped to edge the decider in another tiebreak, demonstrating resilience in the closing stages. The result marks a significant scalp for Kalinskaya and represents a setback for Shnaider's momentum in the tournament.