Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Aryna SabalenkaOpen full analysisElena RybakinaOpen full analysis

CincinnatihardQFFriday, August 15, 2025
No-vig market probability
Sabalenka 60%40% Rybakina
1.63Recorded odds2.44
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Aryna SabalenkaVSElena Rybakina
1Set 16
4Set 26

Elena Rybakina won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Aryna SabalenkaElena Rybakina
70%
Career Win %
78%
74%
Win % on Hard
80%
77%
Holds Serve
81%
34%
Breaks Serve
35%
62%
1st Serve In
58%
68%
1st Serve Won
73%
43%
Return Pts Won
44%
4.5
Aces / match
6.4
81%
Tiebreak %
57%
44%
Deciding-set %
60%
1790
Rating
1954
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Aryna Sabalenka43 serves
Where they place their serve
Elena Rybakina64 serves
Where they place their serve
21%Wide
19%Body
14%T
9%T
14%Body
23%Wide
28%Wide
6%Body
16%T
5%T
16%Body
30%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide23%
Top targetAd · Wide30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6–1, 6–4 in the Cincinnati Masters 1000 quarter-final on hard court, an upset victory against the pre-match favourite. Sabalenka entered as the odds-on favourite at 1.63, but Rybakina's dominant performance, particularly in the opening set, proved decisive. The Kazakhstani player's clean execution and court control allowed her to break serve repeatedly and dictate rallies from the baseline. Sabalenka, despite her ranking and seeding status, struggled to find rhythm and was unable to mount a sustained challenge, especially after losing the first set so decisively. Rybakina's convincing win suggests renewed confidence heading into the latter stages of the tournament and marks a significant scalp against one of the tour's top players.