Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Brandon NakashimaOpen full analysisMatteo ArnaldiOpen full analysis

Indian Wells MastershardR32Monday, March 10, 2025
No-vig market probability
Nakashima 49%51% Arnaldi
1.99Recorded odds1.92
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Brandon NakashimaVSMatteo Arnaldi
6Set 12
6Set 24

Brandon Nakashima won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Brandon NakashimaMatteo Arnaldi
41%
Career Win %
38%
50%
Win % on Hard
32%
85%
Holds Serve
72%
15%
Breaks Serve
19%
64%
1st Serve In
57%
74%
1st Serve Won
68%
34%
Return Pts Won
36%
9.2
Aces / match
5.3
36%
Tiebreak %
50%
44%
Deciding-set %
29%
1593
Rating
1462
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Brandon Nakashima45 serves
Where they place their serve
Matteo Arnaldi56 serves
Where they place their serve
27%Wide
7%Body
20%T
18%T
4%Body
24%Wide
16%Wide
11%Body
23%T
16%T
4%Body
30%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide27%
Top targetAd · Wide30%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Brandon Nakashima defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6–2, 6–4 in the second round of the Indian Wells Masters on hard court, claiming a notable upset against the pre-match favourite. Arnaldi entered as the slight odds-on selection at 1.92, but Nakashima's superior court control and consistency proved decisive throughout the encounter. The American's commanding performance in the opening set established early momentum, which he maintained through the second to secure passage to the third round. This victory represents a significant scalp for Nakashima at a Masters 1000 event and suggests improved form heading into the latter stages of the tournament.