Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Cameron NorrieOpen full analysisCarlos AlcarazOpen full analysis

Paris MastershardR32Tuesday, October 28, 2025
No-vig market probability
Norrie 9%91% Alcaraz
10.54Recorded odds1.05
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Cameron NorrieVSCarlos Alcaraz
4Set 16
6Set 23
6Set 34

Cameron Norrie won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Cameron NorrieCarlos Alcaraz
42%
Career Win %
80%
53%
Win % on Hard
78%
78%
Holds Serve
86%
15%
Breaks Serve
29%
64%
1st Serve In
65%
70%
1st Serve Won
72%
34%
Return Pts Won
41%
4.1
Aces / match
4.4
56%
Tiebreak %
59%
69%
Deciding-set %
67%
1542
Rating
1946
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Cameron Norrie92 serves
Where they place their serve
Carlos Alcaraz95 serves
Where they place their serve
13%Wide
13%Body
25%T
3%T
14%Body
32%Wide
16%Wide
25%Body
11%T
22%T
12%Body
15%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide32%
Top targetDeuce · Body25%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Cameron Norrie defeated Carlos Alcaraz 4–6, 6–3, 6–4 in the first round of the Paris Masters on hard court, pulling off a significant upset against the overwhelming pre-match favourite. Alcaraz entered as a prohibitive favourite at 1.05 odds, whilst Norrie was priced at 10.54, reflecting the world No. 2's dominance and recent form. After losing the opening set, Norrie regrouped decisively, winning the second set 6–3 before closing out the match in the third set with a 6–4 scoreline. The result marks a notable scalp for Norrie at a Masters 1000 event and suggests improved form heading into the latter stages of the autumn hard-court season. Alcaraz's loss represents a rare stumble at a tournament where he typically contends strongly.