Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Carlos AlcarazOpen full analysisCasper RuudOpen full analysis

TokyohardSFMonday, September 29, 2025
No-vig market probability
Alcaraz 87%13% Ruud
1.13Recorded odds7.27
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Carlos AlcarazVSCasper Ruud
3Set 16
6Set 23
6Set 34

Carlos Alcaraz won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Carlos AlcarazCasper Ruud
80%
Career Win %
62%
78%
Win % on Hard
55%
86%
Holds Serve
85%
29%
Breaks Serve
20%
65%
1st Serve In
65%
72%
1st Serve Won
73%
41%
Return Pts Won
37%
4.4
Aces / match
5.3
59%
Tiebreak %
55%
67%
Deciding-set %
56%
1946
Rating
1713
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Carlos Alcaraz80 serves
Where they place their serve
Casper Ruud90 serves
Where they place their serve
19%Wide
1%Body
31%T
21%T
1%Body
26%Wide
20%Wide
2%Body
31%T
20%T
0%Body
27%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T31%
Top targetDeuce · T31%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Casper Ruud 3–6, 6–3, 6–4 in the semi-final of the ATP 250 Tokyo tournament on hard court, confirming his position as pre-match favourite with odds of 1.13 to Ruud's 7.27. After losing the opening set, Alcaraz regrouped decisively, taking control in the second and third sets to advance to the final. The Spaniard's recovery from a set down demonstrated the consistency required at this level, whilst Ruud, despite a strong start, was unable to sustain the intensity needed to upset the odds. This victory positions Alcaraz within striking distance of the Tokyo title and reinforces his standing among the tour's elite performers.