Indian Wells MastershardSFSaturday, March 14, 2026
No-vig market probability
Alcaraz 81%19% Medvedev
1.17Recorded odds4.84
FINAL RESULT
Match score
Carlos AlcarazVSDaniil Medvedev
3Set 16
6Set 27
Daniil Medvedev won the match
CAREER COMPARISON
Player records
Carlos AlcarazDaniil Medvedev
80%
Career Win %
69%
78%
Win % on Hard
70%
86%
Holds Serve
85%
29%
Breaks Serve
25%
65%
1st Serve In
63%
72%
1st Serve Won
75%
41%
Return Pts Won
39%
4.4
Aces / match
8.4
59%
Tiebreak %
52%
67%
Deciding-set %
56%
1946
Rating
1722
SERVICE PLACEMENT
Serve targets from this match
Carlos Alcaraz62 serves
Where they place their serve
Daniil Medvedev75 serves
Where they place their serve
27%Wide
2%Body
24%T
15%T
6%Body
26%Wide
39%Wide
1%Body
12%T
35%T
1%Body
12%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide27%
Top targetDeuce · Wide39%
MATCH STORY
PhantomStat recap
Daniil Medvedev upset pre-match favourite Carlos Alcaraz 6–3, 7–6 in the semi-final of the ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells on hard court, a result that defied the odds which favoured Alcaraz at 1.17 to 4.84. Medvedev's composed performance, particularly in a tight second set decided in a tie-break, demonstrated his capacity to compete at the highest level against the world's elite. The Russian's victory on the California hard courts underscores his continued resilience and tactical acumen in Masters events. This result significantly reshapes the tournament's trajectory and suggests Medvedev remains a formidable contender in best-of-three formats.