Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
Return to calendar
FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Carlos AlcarazOpen full analysisJannik SinnerOpen full analysis

Tour FinalshardFSunday, November 16, 2025
No-vig market probability
Alcaraz 35%65% Sinner
2.80Recorded odds1.50
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Carlos AlcarazVSJannik Sinner
6Set 17
5Set 27

Jannik Sinner won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Carlos AlcarazJannik Sinner
80%
Career Win %
78%
78%
Win % on Hard
79%
86%
Holds Serve
88%
29%
Breaks Serve
28%
65%
1st Serve In
61%
72%
1st Serve Won
76%
41%
Return Pts Won
41%
4.4
Aces / match
6.5
59%
Tiebreak %
69%
67%
Deciding-set %
56%
1946
Rating
2147
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Carlos Alcaraz72 serves
Where they place their serve
Jannik Sinner78 serves
Where they place their serve
21%Wide
8%Body
25%T
12%T
10%Body
24%Wide
19%Wide
5%Body
29%T
10%T
5%Body
31%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T25%
Top targetAd · Wide31%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Jannik Sinner defeated Carlos Alcaraz 7–6, 7–5 in the ATP Tour Finals final on a hard court, confirming his status as the tournament favourite with odds of 1.5 against Alcaraz's 2.8. Sinner's composed performance in both sets, particularly his ability to secure the opening tiebreak and maintain pressure in the second, proved decisive in claiming the year-end championship. The Italian's victory underlines his ascendancy in men's tennis heading into 2026, having now established a significant edge in their head-to-head record and cemented his position among the sport's elite.