Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Carlos AlcarazOpen full analysisJannik SinnerOpen full analysis

US OpenhardFSunday, September 7, 2025
No-vig market probability
Alcaraz 46%54% Sinner
2.12Recorded odds1.81
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Carlos AlcarazVSJannik Sinner
6Set 12
3Set 26
6Set 31
6Set 44

Carlos Alcaraz won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Carlos AlcarazJannik Sinner
80%
Career Win %
78%
78%
Win % on Hard
79%
86%
Holds Serve
88%
29%
Breaks Serve
28%
65%
1st Serve In
61%
72%
1st Serve Won
76%
41%
Return Pts Won
41%
4.4
Aces / match
6.5
59%
Tiebreak %
69%
67%
Deciding-set %
56%
1946
Rating
2147
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Carlos Alcaraz89 serves
Where they place their serve
Jannik Sinner112 serves
Where they place their serve
16%Wide
20%Body
17%T
12%T
12%Body
22%Wide
12%Wide
15%Body
25%T
14%T
15%Body
18%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide22%
Top targetDeuce · T25%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jannik Sinner 6–2, 3–6, 6–1, 6–4 in the US Open final on hard court, claiming his second Grand Slam title of 2025. Despite Sinner entering as pre-match favourite at odds of 1.81 to Alcaraz's 2.12, the Spaniard delivered a commanding performance to upset the betting markets. After dropping the second set, Alcaraz reasserted control in the third and fourth, breaking Sinner's resistance with consistent pressure and precision. The victory underscores Alcaraz's status as one of the sport's most formidable competitors on hard courts and marks a significant scalp against the world's top-ranked player in a major final.