Carlos Alcaraz defeated Lorenzo Musetti 6–4, 6–1 in their ATP Tour Finals round-robin match on hard court, confirming his status as the decisive pre-match favourite with odds of 1.14 to Musetti's 6.88. The Spaniard's commanding performance, particularly in the second set where he conceded only one game, underscored the significant gap in class between the two players at season's end. Alcaraz's dominance in the opening round-robin fixture positions him well for progression through the Finals format, whilst Musetti faces an uphill battle to recover from such a heavy defeat in his remaining group matches.