Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Carlos AlcarazOpen full analysisReilly OpelkaOpen full analysis

US OpenhardR128Tuesday, August 26, 2025
No-vig market probability
Alcaraz 93%7% Opelka
1.05Recorded odds14.58
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Carlos AlcarazVSReilly Opelka
6Set 14
7Set 25
6Set 34

Carlos Alcaraz won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Carlos AlcarazReilly Opelka
80%
Career Win %
50%
78%
Win % on Hard
50%
86%
Holds Serve
90%
29%
Breaks Serve
8%
65%
1st Serve In
66%
72%
1st Serve Won
77%
41%
Return Pts Won
28%
4.4
Aces / match
16.4
59%
Tiebreak %
54%
67%
Deciding-set %
46%
1946
Rating
1554
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Carlos Alcaraz84 serves
Where they place their serve
Reilly Opelka104 serves
Where they place their serve
30%Wide
4%Body
19%T
13%T
2%Body
32%Wide
25%Wide
4%Body
24%T
12%T
2%Body
33%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide32%
Top targetAd · Wide33%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Reilly Opelka 6–4, 7–5, 6–4 in the first round of the US Open on hard court on 26 August 2025, confirming his status as the heavy pre-match favourite with odds of 1.05 to Opelka's 14.58. The Spanish world number one controlled the encounter with consistent baseline play, securing breaks at decisive moments in each set to advance without significant resistance. Opelka, the American big server, struggled to impose his usual serving dominance and found few opportunities to pressure Alcaraz's return game or dictate rallies from the baseline. The straightforward victory maintains Alcaraz's formidable form on hard courts and sets up a favourable trajectory through the draw.