Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Carlos AlcarazOpen full analysisSebastian BaezOpen full analysis

TokyohardR32Thursday, September 25, 2025
No-vig market probability
Alcaraz 95%5% Baez
1.01Recorded odds17.87
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Carlos AlcarazVSSebastian Baez
6Set 14
6Set 22

Carlos Alcaraz won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Carlos AlcarazSebastian Baez
80%
Career Win %
38%
78%
Win % on Hard
17%
86%
Holds Serve
68%
29%
Breaks Serve
25%
65%
1st Serve In
71%
72%
1st Serve Won
62%
41%
Return Pts Won
39%
4.4
Aces / match
1.3
59%
Tiebreak %
17%
67%
Deciding-set %
54%
1946
Rating
1459
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Carlos Alcaraz56 serves
Where they place their serve
Sebastian Baez54 serves
Where they place their serve
25%Wide
0%Body
27%T
18%T
2%Body
29%Wide
17%Wide
11%Body
24%T
22%T
4%Body
22%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide29%
Top targetDeuce · T24%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Sebastian Baez 6–4, 6–2 in the first round of the ATP 250 Tokyo tournament on hard court, confirming his status as the overwhelming pre-match favourite with odds of 1.01 to Baez's 17.87. The Spanish top seed controlled the match throughout, breaking serve decisively in both sets to secure a comfortable victory. Alcaraz's commanding performance in the opening round suggests he remains in strong form as the tournament progresses toward the latter stages.