Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Casper RuudOpen full analysisMatteo BerrettiniOpen full analysis

TokyohardR16Friday, September 26, 2025
No-vig market probability
Ruud 57%43% Berrettini
1.71Recorded odds2.27
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Casper RuudVSMatteo Berrettini
7Set 16
6Set 22

Casper Ruud won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Casper RuudMatteo Berrettini
62%
Career Win %
59%
55%
Win % on Hard
53%
85%
Holds Serve
88%
20%
Breaks Serve
15%
65%
1st Serve In
65%
73%
1st Serve Won
78%
37%
Return Pts Won
34%
5.3
Aces / match
10.6
55%
Tiebreak %
57%
56%
Deciding-set %
50%
1713
Rating
1629
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Casper Ruud57 serves
Where they place their serve
Matteo Berrettini64 serves
Where they place their serve
12%Wide
12%Body
28%T
19%T
4%Body
25%Wide
19%Wide
9%Body
22%T
16%T
6%Body
28%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T28%
Top targetAd · Wide28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Casper Ruud defeated Matteo Berrettini 7–6, 6–2 in the second round of the ATP 250 Tokyo tournament on hard court, confirming his status as pre-match favourite with odds of 1.71 to Berrettini's 2.27. The Norwegian secured a tight opening set via tiebreak before taking control in the second, where he broke serve twice to close out the match comfortably. Ruud's composed performance, particularly his conversion of set-point opportunities in the first set and his dominance thereafter, underlined his superior ranking and recent form on the hard court. The victory advances him to the quarter-finals and maintains his momentum in the Asian swing.