Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Daniil MedvedevOpen full analysisHolger RuneOpen full analysis

Indian Wells MastershardSFSaturday, March 15, 2025
No-vig market probability
Medvedev 63%37% Rune
1.56Recorded odds2.63
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Daniil MedvedevVSHolger Rune
5Set 17
4Set 26

Holger Rune won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Daniil MedvedevHolger Rune
69%
Career Win %
52%
70%
Win % on Hard
50%
85%
Holds Serve
79%
25%
Breaks Serve
17%
63%
1st Serve In
61%
75%
1st Serve Won
70%
39%
Return Pts Won
35%
8.4
Aces / match
5.1
52%
Tiebreak %
54%
56%
Deciding-set %
50%
1722
Rating
1565
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Daniil Medvedev60 serves
Where they place their serve
Holger Rune70 serves
Where they place their serve
20%Wide
18%Body
17%T
20%T
15%Body
10%Wide
27%Wide
13%Body
11%T
16%T
13%Body
20%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide20%
Top targetDeuce · Wide27%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Holger Rune defeated Daniil Medvedev 7–5, 6–4 in the semi-final of the Indian Wells Masters on hard court, delivering a significant upset against the pre-match favourite. Medvedev, seeded higher and backed at 1.56 odds, entered as the expected victor, but Rune's composed performance across both sets proved decisive. The Danish player broke through in the opening set's crucial moments to secure the first frame, then maintained his momentum in the second to seal a commanding victory. This result marks a notable scalp for Rune at a Masters 1000 event and sends him through to the final, where he will face a fresh opponent after a demanding semi-final. The upset underscores Rune's improving consistency on hard courts and represents a significant stride in his bid for a maiden Masters title.