Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
Return to calendar
FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Daniil MedvedevOpen full analysisLearner TienOpen full analysis

Australian OpenhardR16Sunday, January 25, 2026
No-vig market probability
Medvedev 66%34% Tien
1.43Recorded odds2.75
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Daniil MedvedevVSLearner Tien
4Set 16
0Set 26
3Set 36

Learner Tien won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Daniil MedvedevLearner Tien
69%
Career Win %
61%
70%
Win % on Hard
62%
85%
Holds Serve
78%
25%
Breaks Serve
24%
63%
1st Serve In
64%
75%
1st Serve Won
69%
39%
Return Pts Won
39%
8.4
Aces / match
4.7
52%
Tiebreak %
75%
56%
Deciding-set %
43%
1722
Rating
1643
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Daniil Medvedev85 serves
Where they place their serve
Learner Tien68 serves
Where they place their serve
21%Wide
11%Body
21%T
27%T
4%Body
16%Wide
21%Wide
7%Body
25%T
15%T
3%Body
29%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · T27%
Top targetAd · Wide29%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Learner Tien produced a dominant upset over Daniil Medvedev in the Australian Open round of 16 on hard court, winning 6-4, 6-0, 6-3 on 25 January 2026. Despite Medvedev's status as the pre-match favourite at odds of 1.43, the American emerged with a commanding performance, particularly in the second set where he conceded no games. Tien's clinical execution and consistency throughout the match proved too much for the Russian, who struggled to find rhythm and solutions across all three sets. The decisive nature of the victory—especially the bagel in the second set—underscored the gulf in form on the day. This result marks a significant breakthrough for Tien at Grand Slam level, eliminating a former top-three player and advancing to the quarterfinals.