Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Daniil MedvedevOpen full analysisSebastian BaezOpen full analysis

Indian Wells MastershardR32Tuesday, March 10, 2026
No-vig market probability
Medvedev 83%17% Baez
1.14Recorded odds5.41
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Daniil MedvedevVSSebastian Baez
6Set 14
6Set 20

Daniil Medvedev won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Daniil MedvedevSebastian Baez
69%
Career Win %
38%
70%
Win % on Hard
17%
85%
Holds Serve
68%
25%
Breaks Serve
25%
63%
1st Serve In
71%
75%
1st Serve Won
62%
39%
Return Pts Won
39%
8.4
Aces / match
1.3
52%
Tiebreak %
17%
56%
Deciding-set %
54%
1722
Rating
1459
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Daniil Medvedev52 serves
Where they place their serve
Sebastian Baez62 serves
Where they place their serve
35%Wide
0%Body
15%T
27%T
0%Body
23%Wide
24%Wide
5%Body
23%T
34%T
3%Body
11%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · Wide35%
Top targetAd · T34%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Daniil Medvedev defeated Sebastian Baez 6–4, 6–0 in the second round of the ATP Indian Wells Masters on hard court on 10 March 2026. As the heavy pre-match favourite at odds of 1.14, Medvedev delivered an emphatic performance, dropping only four games across the two sets. Baez, competing at odds of 5.41, offered minimal resistance in the second set, which proved a comprehensive whitewash. The Russian's dominance on the California hard courts underscores his continued form in the early spring season and sets up a favourable path through the draw.