Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Daria KasatkinaOpen full analysisLiudmila SamsonovaOpen full analysis

Indian WellshardR32Monday, March 10, 2025
No-vig market probability
Kasatkina 59%41% Samsonova
1.67Recorded odds2.36
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Daria KasatkinaVSLiudmila Samsonova
6Set 12
3Set 26
2Set 36

Liudmila Samsonova won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Daria KasatkinaLiudmila Samsonova
42%
Career Win %
58%
42%
Win % on Hard
56%
57%
Holds Serve
73%
38%
Breaks Serve
29%
68%
1st Serve In
57%
59%
1st Serve Won
70%
45%
Return Pts Won
41%
1.5
Aces / match
4.4
50%
Tiebreak %
44%
44%
Deciding-set %
53%
1429
Rating
1591
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Daria Kasatkina70 serves
Where they place their serve
Liudmila Samsonova85 serves
Where they place their serve
14%Wide
14%Body
24%T
24%T
10%Body
13%Wide
25%Wide
18%Body
9%T
8%T
13%Body
27%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T24%
Top targetAd · Wide27%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Liudmila Samsonova defeated Daria Kasatkina 2–6, 6–3, 6–2 in the Indian Wells R32 on hard court on 10 March 2025, pulling off an upset against the pre-match favourite. Kasatkina, the odds-on pick at 1.67, struggled to maintain control after losing the opening set, allowing Samsonova to build momentum through the middle and closing stages. Samsonova's improved consistency in the second and third sets proved decisive, as she neutralised Kasatkina's early dominance and secured the straight-sets turnaround. The result marks a significant scalp for Samsonova at the Masters 1000 level and suggests a potential shift in their recent head-to-head dynamic.