Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Denis ShapovalovOpen full analysisJannik SinnerOpen full analysis

Indian Wells MastershardR32Sunday, March 8, 2026
No-vig market probability
Shapovalov 8%92% Sinner
11.16Recorded odds1.03
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Denis ShapovalovVSJannik Sinner
3Set 16
2Set 26

Jannik Sinner won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Denis ShapovalovJannik Sinner
43%
Career Win %
78%
47%
Win % on Hard
79%
82%
Holds Serve
88%
17%
Breaks Serve
28%
60%
1st Serve In
61%
74%
1st Serve Won
76%
35%
Return Pts Won
41%
8.0
Aces / match
6.5
49%
Tiebreak %
69%
24%
Deciding-set %
56%
1604
Rating
2147
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Denis Shapovalov56 serves
Where they place their serve
Jannik Sinner43 serves
Where they place their serve
21%Wide
4%Body
25%T
16%T
5%Body
29%Wide
26%Wide
0%Body
26%T
28%T
5%Body
16%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetAd · Wide29%
Top targetAd · T28%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Jannik Sinner defeated Denis Shapovalov 6–3, 6–2 in the second round of the Indian Wells Masters on hard court, justifying his status as a heavy pre-match favourite at odds of 1.03. Shapovalov, trading at 11.16, offered little resistance as Sinner controlled the match from the outset, breaking serve multiple times and maintaining consistent pressure throughout both sets. The Italian's dominance was evident in the scoreline, with Shapovalov unable to mount a sustained challenge despite his reputation for aggressive tennis. This commanding performance underscores Sinner's current form and standing among the tour's elite, positioning him well for deeper tournament runs as he continues his 2026 campaign.