Country Name Tour Elo rank Wins Overall Elo Opponent Opp wins Opp Elo Match Time Hand Last 10
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FINISHED MATCH · RECAP

Denis ShapovalovOpen full analysisJannik SinnerOpen full analysis

US OpenhardR32Friday, August 29, 2025
No-vig market probability
Shapovalov 6%94% Sinner
15.75Recorded odds1.02
FINAL RESULT

Match score

Denis ShapovalovVSJannik Sinner
7Set 15
4Set 26
3Set 36
3Set 46

Jannik Sinner won the match

CAREER COMPARISON

Player records

Denis ShapovalovJannik Sinner
43%
Career Win %
78%
47%
Win % on Hard
79%
82%
Holds Serve
88%
17%
Breaks Serve
28%
60%
1st Serve In
61%
74%
1st Serve Won
76%
35%
Return Pts Won
41%
8.0
Aces / match
6.5
49%
Tiebreak %
69%
24%
Deciding-set %
56%
1604
Rating
2147
SERVICE PLACEMENT

Serve targets from this match

Denis Shapovalov125 serves
Where they place their serve
Jannik Sinner110 serves
Where they place their serve
11%Wide
6%Body
34%T
15%T
5%Body
29%Wide
35%Wide
3%Body
15%T
27%T
1%Body
19%Wide
DeuceAdDeuceAd
Top targetDeuce · T34%
Top targetDeuce · Wide35%
MATCH STORY

PhantomStat recap

Jannik Sinner defeated Denis Shapovalov 5–7, 6–4, 6–3, 6–3 in the second round of the US Open on hard court, confirming his status as the overwhelming pre-match favourite with odds of 1.02. Shapovalov, a significant underdog at 15.75, pushed the Italian in an opening set that went to a tiebreak, but Sinner's superior consistency and court control proved decisive once he levelled the match. The world number one then dominated the final two sets, breaking Shapovalov's serve repeatedly to secure a commanding victory. Sinner's progression maintains his bid for a second Grand Slam title this season and underlines his formidable form on hard courts.